HDR has successfully combined Cost Risk Analysis with Value Engineering into an integrated process called “CRAVE”. CRAVE identifies and quantifies opportunities while accounting for risk. CRAVE augments risk analysis by assessing within the same framework all possible alternatives and solutions suggested or recommended by the value engineering team, providing a reality check on proposed innovations. The presentation will provide an overview of the process and how it's applied to various type of projects as well as discuss few case studies.
The Edmonton North LRT is a $755 million, 3.3 km extension of Edmonton's current 21-km LRT system, involving tunnelling, street-level construction, and three new LRT stations. It is projected to add 13,200 weekday riders to the current 92,000 weekday ridership.ffordable, accessible, and environmentally friendly. During the detailed design phase for the North LRT, two major value engineering and risk analysis workshops were conducted. The first value engineering workshop was conducted at the start of the detailed design stage to confirm the preliminary design and search for new creative ideas, and the second workshop was conducted for the LRT track to select the highest value option.
This presentation showcases the benefits gained in applying the value engineering methodology. The workshop job plan, major findings, risk analysis and the current status of the project were discussed.
Describes typical risk management approaches, Pratt and Whitney Canada's risk management in their product development process, describes how complexity assessments measure level of difficulty of a proposed project and how using this approach ensures risk assessments are not techno centric. Part of a project portfolio management system.
Le ministère des Transports du Québec (MTQ) planifie présentement la réfection du pont-tunnel Louis-Hyppolite Lafontaine à Montréal. L’enjeu du projet est de rehausser le niveau de sécurité du tunnel en cas d’incendie, pour permettre l’évacuation des personnes par une sortie de secours conforme aux standards applicables aux tunnels routiers avec un niveau de risque acceptable pour des ouvrages de cette nature. Le Ministère veut établir quel est ce niveau de risque acceptable, selon une approche méthodologique rigoureuse.
Le projet est à l’étape de l’étude de faisabilité. Les membres de l’équipe de projet ont procédé à un exercice d’analyse de la valeur afin de s’assurer que ce projet répondra aux besoins exprimés au juste coût tout en améliorant ses fonctionnalités et en réduisant les risques d’incident et leurs conséquences.
L’originalité de l’approche proposée résulte d’un maillage de deux méthodologies éprouvées et reconnues internationalement : L’Analyse de la valeur et l’Analyse de risque (ou Étude spécifique des dangers).
L’analyse de risque fut inspirée du fascicule 4 de la méthode européenne développée dans le cadre d’un projet de recherche conjoint de l’ Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) et de l’Association internationale permanente des congrès de la route (AIPCR) avec une participation financière de l’Union Européenne. Celle-ci considère le tunnel comme un système global, constitué des usagers, de l’ouvrage lui -même avec ses équipements et son environnement, de l’exploitant ainsi que des services d’intervention et de secours. Un modèle fonctionnel (pierre d’assise de l’AV) fut développé par l’équipe. Une analyse simulant un cas catastrophe fut faite et la performance du tunnel fut évaluée pour chacune des fonctions. Le diagnostic a fait ressortir plusieurs dysfonctionnements et une session de créativité a permis de générer des solutions innovatrices pour améliorer la sécurité des usagers. Une analyse comparative des scénarios a permis de recommander le scénario optimal, soit celui qui satisfait le mieux aux besoins au juste coût.
Probabilistic analyses are becoming more commonly used in the mining industry to assist with decision-making. Complex systems with a significant number of variable input and output conditions make traditional approaches to selection of design and management approaches more difficult. Examples of such complex systems optimization include balancing water uses and discharges as related to ore processing and tailings management on mine sites. Additionally, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA), a structured, qualitative approach for the analysis of risks, have been undertaken to examine categories of consequences such as health and safety, environmental, financial, and reputation.
Risk of failure analyses have examined issues such as major ground falls, water inflows into mine shafts, uncontrolled discharges from mine tailing sites, and risks associated with development of carbon sequestration facilities. These approaches have been used for resource mining, carbon sequestration, nuclear waste repositories, and other major underground facilities. This presentation summarizes some of the applied probability methods being used to assist with developing priorities for risk management activities with the goal of improving overall safety, production, operation, and financial performance of mines and mining-related facilities.
Three examples of risk analysis at different stages of the procurement will be discussed.
This presentation will cover how WSDOT changed the project management culture, from getting their project managers to just try using risk based estimating, into it being a common way of managing projects. Risk based estimating is a tool that supports risk management, without effective risk management you lose much of the benefits of risk based estimating. How to overcome the feeling that risk based estimating is just a flavor of the month. Lessons learned and best practices will be presented to prevent others from learning the hard way. What is needed to build a risk program within an organization and how do you keep it from being just another thing for project managers to do? Top ten reasons why to implement a risk program within your organization.
Programme: Building a Risk Reserve Program at Washington State DOT
The Garden City Skyway is one of the largest structures in MTO’s bridge inventory, with 48 spans and a total length of 2.2 km. The structure is located on the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW), a vital economic corridor carrying significant commercial and tourist traffic between the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Niagara Region and the USA. The existing bridge deck is nearing the end of is service life and it is anticipated to require replacement by 2025. A preliminary design study was initiated to determine a long term strategy to address the structural, traffic, safety and operational needs of this important structure. Integrated Value Engineering and Schedule/Cost Risk studies were undertaken to review the short listed preliminary design concepts and support decision making to select a preferred solution. The studies engaged a wide range of design and construction expertise, as well as key project stakeholders to identify a best value solution based on 100 year risk-based life-cycle costs.
The Ministry of Transportation, Ontario (MTO) undertook a Value Analysis study for the proposed twining of the Trans-Canada Highway 11/17 east of Thunder Bay. The base case involved major electrical transmission line conflicts and challenging foundation conditions. The Value Analysis study identified risks and mitigation measures along with providing costs for various alignment alternatives. By involving the electrical utility as active participants during the workshop, both MTO and the utility were able to share their concerns and objectives, while working toward a solution that offered benefits to both parties.
Better decisions can be made by thinking differently and using a risk informed process. There is no easy or “right answer” to selecting the best value solution but there is a “right process”. The right process is to combine Value Analysis with Risk Analysis to identify and select risk informed solutions. Value Analysis combined with Risk Analysis is a structured approach that combines creative and analytical steps to generate risk informed creative solutions. This presentation will focus on how to integrate Risk Analysis into the VA process. Both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and integration into the VA work plan will outlined
Why risk is a key consideration for value proposals. How to integrate qualitative risk analysis into the VA job plan.